A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
